A Fuzzy Reed–Frost Model for Epidemic Spreading
Identifieur interne : 003442 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003441; suivant : 003443A Fuzzy Reed–Frost Model for Epidemic Spreading
Auteurs : Neli R. S. Ortega [Brésil] ; Fabiano S. Santos [Brésil] ; Dirce M. T. Zanetta [Brésil] ; Eduardo Massad [Brésil, Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2008-10-01.
English descriptors
Abstract
Abstract: In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed–Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed–Frost generalization.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-008-9332-3
Affiliations:
- Brésil, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, État de São Paulo
- Londres, São Paulo
- Université de São Paulo
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Biol.</title><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno><idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno><imprint><publisher>Springer-Verlag</publisher><pubPlace>New York</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2008-10-01">2008-10-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">70</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1925">1925</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1936">1936</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemiological models</term><term>Fuzzy epidemic</term><term>Fuzzy logic</term><term>Reed–Frost</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed–Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. 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